Gold Outlook Retrospective: 2015 to the Current

The gold outlook has seen its ups and downs over the previous 5 years.

Ounces of gold have traded inside a broad vary of about $1,050 to $1,350 throughout that point, typically buffeted by financial modifications and threat components like financial coverage, and at different occasions buoyed by by secure haven demand and funding curiosity.

For these excited about gold as a monetary funding — from bodily gold to gold shares to gold exchange-traded funds — it’s price taking a retrospective take a look at the gold outlook. From worth traits to produce and demand, there are numerous essential components to contemplate earlier than leaping into the market.

Scroll on to learn what analysts and executives at gold mining corporations predicted for the gold worth and gold market from 2015 to the current, in addition to what the long run really introduced for the yellow steel.

Gold outlook 2019 — Market waits for Fed to blink

Beginning worth: US$1,280.40

2019 analyst gold worth forecast — The Fed was one of many main indicators for gold market watchers at the start of 2019, with many predicting that the central financial institution would halt or rein in rate of interest hikes for the 12 months. Analysts additionally pointed to the US greenback’s efficiency, saying a slip may convey again demand for valuable metals as a secure haven.

2019 CEO gold worth forecast — As a complete execs within the gold mining area anticipated 2018 to be stronger than it was. As 2019 got here to a begin, they had been calling for enhancements out there and gold worth; they anticipated that traders would diversify into gold and put aside buying and selling and funding in scorching sectors like hashish, cryptocurrencies and lithium.

Q1 2019 — The 12 months kicked off with the Fed asserting plans to pause its financial tightening cycle, a transfer that introduced renewed demand for gold amongst traders. Nonetheless, regardless of this information on fee hikes the gold worth rose solely 0.85 % for the quarter and struggled to remain above US$1,300, with mining analysts saying that its market efficiency was muted by the still-strong US greenback.

Gold outlook 2018 — Fed hikes, US greenback weigh on gold

Beginning worth: US$1,302.50; ending worth: US$1,280.40; proportion transfer: -1.4 %

2018 analyst gold worth forecast — Heading into 2018, specialists had been advising traders to look at the Fed and geopolitics for clues on gold worth motion. The expectation was for at the very least three fee hikes from the central financial institution, and after geopolitical tensions supported the yellow steel in 2017 market watchers had been anticipating additional affect in the course of the 12 months.

2018 CEO gold worth forecast — For his or her half, gold mining execs had been typically constructive on the worth of gold in the beginning of the 12 months, calling for a powerful 12 months for the steel and decreased curiosity in competing sectors comparable to hashish and cryptocurrencies. They hoped to see extra liquidity for junior shares.

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Q1 2018 — Gold costs moved between about US$1,300 and US$1,350 throughout Q1 2018. Whereas the steel suffered forward of the Fed’s first fee hike of the 12 months it ended the interval up round 3 %.

Q2 2018 — After gaining in Q1, the gold ounce worth dropped 6 % within the second quarter, falling under the important US$1,300 degree. The Fed hiked charges for a second time, placing strain on valuable metals and the gold market, whereas traders shied away from the yellow steel, afraid that the growing commerce battle between the US and China would dampen the economies of each nations. Gold’s lowest level for the interval was US$1,247.10 on June 28 and its highest was US$1,352.80 on April 11.

Q3 2018 — Q3 introduced a drop of practically 5 % for gold costs. They sank under US$1,200 in mid-August, pushed downward by a powerful US greenback and a 3rd fee hike from the Fed. The yellow steel traded between about US$1,175 and US$1,250.

This autumn 2018 — The worth of an oz. of gold picked up in the course of the 12 months’s final quarter, climbing nearly 8 %. Though the Fed hiked charges for a fourth time in December, drops in key US indices despatched traders dashing again into belongings like bodily gold as a secure haven. Gold costs had been solely about $20 in need of $1,300 by the tip of the 12 months.

Gold outlook 2018 expectations versus actuality — Gold was down about 1.5 % on the finish of the fourth quarter, with the overall consensus from business insiders being that it may have carried out worse contemplating the headwinds it confronted. These included the Fed’s regular fee hikes (as predicted) and continued disinterest from traders because of a powerful US greenback.

Geopolitics did transfer gold and different valuable metals in 2018, however maybe not as anticipated. As a substitute of producing worth good points like worries about Donald Trump did in 2017, the commerce battle weighed closely on the gold market.

Gold outlook 2017 — Trump uncertainty boosts gold

Beginning worth: US$1,150.90; ending worth: US$1,302.50; proportion transfer: +14.59 %

2017 analyst gold worth forecast — 2016 introduced uncertainty for gold, silver different valuable metals, largely within the type of Brexit and the election of Trump as president of the US. When 2017 started, analysts had been to see what these main modifications would convey for the market — total the consensus was that the worth of gold would transfer increased, however with some ebb and circulation.

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2017 CEO gold worth forecast — As 2017 started, execs within the gold mining area had been additionally ready to see how Trump may affect the worth of an oz. of gold in addition to prospects for gold shares and gold producers. Whereas basically their outlook for gold was constructive, most pointed to the president as a wildcard with the potential to maneuver gold each up and down.

Q1 2017 — Regardless of a fee hike from the Fed, the gold ounce worth noticed substantial progress in Q1, rising nearly 9 % on the again of uncertainty and concern about Trump. Its quarterly peak of US$1,257.64 got here in mid-February a couple of month earlier than the Fed made its financial coverage announcement.

Q2 2017 — Gold’s upward momentum got here to a halt in Q2, with the steel shedding 0.4 % for the interval. Although it neared the US$1,300 mark in early June, it didn’t push previous it and shortly started to sink after one other Fed resolution on fee hikes. Whereas Trump and geopolitical points like Brexit remained issues, they weren’t sufficient to buoy extra funding demand for valuable metals like gold.

Q3 2017 — September was one among gold’s worst months of the 12 months, however the steel nonetheless loved progress over 3 % in Q3. Tensions between the US and North Korea performed a task in its uptick, however information that the Fed would elevate rates of interest yet one more time for the 12 months dampened its good points. The best gold ounce worth of the interval got here on September 7, when it reached US$1,348.60 after weak US jobs information.

This autumn 2017 — This autumn introduced one other acquire of about 3 % for the yellow steel, permitting ounces of gold to finish the 12 months priced simply above US$1,300. Gold’s upward momentum got here regardless of a 3rd fee hike from the Fed. Jerome Powell was nominated for the Fed chair place by Trump in the course of the interval.

Gold outlook 2017 expectations versus actuality — The worth of an oz. of gold rose practically 15 % in 2017, with market uncertainty brought on by Trump main its good points and funding curiosity as anticipated.

Gold outlook 2016 — Gold jumps on Brexit, drops on Trump

Beginning worth: US$1,061; ending worth: US$1,150.90; proportion transfer: +10.48 %

2016 analyst gold worth forecast — After a considerable worth drop for ounces of gold in 2015, mining analysts had been ready for valuable metals like gold to undergo one other beatdown in 2016. US forex energy and financial progress had been high threat issues, and a few main companies had been calling for the steel to drop under the psychologically essential degree of US$1,000.

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Even so, market watchers believed there was room for a future improve, with potential constructive funding demand progress components being deterioration within the international economic system, fairness market setbacks and a scarcity of fee hikes from the Fed.

2016 CEO gold worth forecast — Regardless of the earlier 12 months’s lackluster efficiency, many gold mining execs had been anticipating a turnaround for the gold worth outlook in 2016, with one commenting, “It could be tough to see a worse marketplace for gold.” Others within the mining business pointed to a discount within the variety of gold corporations (by way of delistings and M&A exercise) as constructive. US forex energy and financial progress had been recognized as attainable threat components.

Gold outlook 2016 expectations versus actuality — Ounces of gold ended the 12 months greater than 10 % increased, although the closing worth was nicely underneath the July peak of US$1,365.40.

Brexit performed a considerable function in shifting funding demand progress for the yellow steel and different valuable metals, with traders flocking to gold as Britain’s resolution to depart the EU ratcheted up uncertainty and issues about threat. By the fourth quarter, nevertheless, Trump’s election and a December fee improve from the Fed had despatched gold right down to round US$1,150.

Gold outlook 2015 — Sturdy US forex dampens gold

Beginning worth: US$1,189.80; ending worth: US$1,061; proportion transfer: -11.27 %

2015 analyst gold worth forecast — Firstly of 2015, specialists within the mining area had been calling for the gold worth to placed on a weak efficiency within the first half of the 12 months because of fee hike expectations. They then noticed progress for ounces of gold within the latter half of the 12 months with the dissipation of that strain. Basically, the expectation was for 2015 to be quieter than 2014 and particularly 2013, which was a very unhealthy 12 months.

Gold outlook 2015 expectations versus actuality — Whereas the outlook on the gold ounce worth was pretty constructive in the beginning of 2015, the yellow steel didn’t see progress and ended up falling over 10 %. Though the Fed did elevate charges as anticipated, that didn’t occur till December, which meant that the prospect of a rise weighed on funding demand for valuable metals like gold all year long. Additionally weighing on gold prices was a powerful US forex.

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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, maintain no direct funding curiosity in any firm talked about on this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing Information Community doesn’t assure the accuracy or thoroughness of the data reported within the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews don’t replicate the opinions of the Investing Information Community and don’t represent funding recommendation. All readers are inspired to carry out their very own due diligence.

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